From Looking Up to Looking Across: What Does the Future Hold?

Review

In the first part, we answered the question “Why do Chinese people hold a grudge against Japan’s invasion?”:

• It was a 14-year-long war trauma, with 35 million casualties and countless broken families.
• Historical memories are continuously passed down through oral traditions, education, and commemorative activities.
• Ongoing post-war conflicts between China and Japan constantly activate these memories.
• Germany and Japan had drastically different post-war approaches:
  • Germany: Nuremberg Trials, ongoing pursuit of war criminals, 70 billion euros in reparations, politicians kneeling for apologies.
  • Japan: Lack of a Tokyo Trial, the Emperor evading trial, Yasukuni Shrine issues, “revisions” in textbooks.
  • The U.S. factor: During the Cold War, Japan became an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and a vanguard against communism.

Now, let us turn our eyes to the present, discussing how the shift in national powerhas changed the Chinese mindset and thepossibility for future reconciliation.

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Chapter One: Shift in National Power - From Looking Up to Looking Across

I. Historical Contrast

What was the image of China in the eyes of the Japanese from the 1950s to the 1970s?

The answer is: a poor, backward, and chaotic neighbor.

China of that era had just ended a century of wars and was destitute. Meanwhile, during the same period, Japan experienced rapid economic growth and quickly became the world's second-largest economy.

This contrast profoundly affected Sino-Japanese relations and influenced the national psyche of the Chinese.

II. The Ridiculed Prediction: GDP Surpassing Japan

In the early 21st century, there was an internet post in China claiming “China’s GDP will surpass Japan in 10-20 years.”

This claim was widely mocked at the time:

“Daydreaming” “How could China possibly surpass Japan?” “Wake up, stop dreaming.” “Japan’s per capita GDP is dozens of times that of China’s.”

Similar ridicule flooded various forums and chatrooms. In the early 2000s, saying “China will surpass Japan” was as absurd as saying “China’s male soccer team will win the World Cup.”

But history unfolded beyond everyone’s expectations:

Year	Event
2010	China’s GDP surpassed Japan for the first time, becoming the world’s second-largest economy.
2023	China’s GDP is approximately four times that of Japan's.

It took less than 20 years to go from being ridiculed to becoming a reality.

III. Reversal of Industrial Capability

GDP is just a number; industrial capability better reflects national strength.

1950s-1980s:

• Japan had Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Sony, Panasonic, Canon.
• China was striving for Liberation-brand trucks and Phoenix-brand bicycles.
• Japan’s home appliances, automobiles, and electronics were sold worldwide.

2020s:

• China is the only country in the world with all industrial categories.
• The world's largest producer of new energy vehicles.
• Leading in shipbuilding orders worldwide.
• Leading the world in 5G technology.

And Japan? Once the kingdom of home appliances has been surpassed by China; the automotive kingdom is being caught up by China.

This reversal in industrial capability has profoundly changed the psychological positioning between the two countries.

IV. Changes in Military Power

Military power is the ultimate reflection of a nation’s strength.

1990s, China’s naval main ships were outdated destroyers and frigates.

2020s, China's navy possesses:

• 3 aircraft carriers (Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian)
• Type 055 10,000-ton destroyers
• Type 052D guided missile destroyers
• Numerous Type 054A frigates

After the escalation of the Diaoyu Islands dispute in 2012, Chinese Coast Guard vessels began regular patrols in the Diaoyu Islands waters.

Behind these actions is the growth of military power, a demonstration of being “more confident”.

V. Changing National Psyche

The change in national power has brought about changes in the national psyche.

1950s-1980s, the Chinese attitude towards Japan was complex:

• Resentment for the history of invasion.
• Envy of Japan’s economic achievements.
• A wake-up call that “backwardness means being beaten.”
• A sense of hopelessness in catching up.

2020s, the situation is different:

• Chinese people no longer see Japan as unattainably high.
• The perception of Japan has shifted from “looking up” to “looking across,” and in some areas, even “looking down.”

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Chapter Two: Behind the “Explosive Buying” - A Snapshot of an Era

I. The Frenzy of 2015

Around 2015, news of Chinese tourists buying rice cookers and toilet seats in Japan swept the internet.

Panasonic rice cookers: Prices ranged from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan, with Chinese tourists queuing to buy. TOTO toilet seats: Priced at thousands, yet in short supply. Thermos, shavers, cosmetics, medicines… Almost all Japanese consumer goods were on the “must-buy list.”

Some ridiculed, “Even toilet seats have to be brought back from Japan; can’t China make them?”

But behind this phenomenon lies the prevailing mindset of Chinese consumers at the time:

II. Distrust in Chinese Products

“Domestic products are unreliable” was the thought of many:

• Rice cookers don't cook well.
• Toilets don’t clean properly.
• Cosmetics might cause skin issues.
• Infant formula is unsafe.

And Japanese products? “Made in Japan” was almost synonymous with “high quality” at that time.

III. Data from Chinese New Year 2015

This “explosive buying” phenomenon reached its peak during the 2015 Chinese New Year. During the Chinese New Year, the per capita consumption of tourists in Japan exceeded 15,000 yuan, almost twice that of tourists from other countries.

IV. The “Comeback” of Domestic Rice Cookers

But times have changed.

In the 2020s, the situation changed dramatically. Chinese rice cooker brands such as Midea, SUPOR, Joyoung, etc., have caught up with Japanese products through technological upgrades and quality improvements.

More importantly, Chinese consumers began to realize: Why spend several times more to buy products with similar or the same features?

“Intelligence tax” and “harvesting leeks”— these became the evaluations of many consumers regarding high-priced foreign brands.

Behind this is the rise of China’s manufacturing industry and the return of consumer confidence.

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Chapter Three: Abandoning War Reparations and Japan's Aid to China

I. Normalization of Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Relations: The Decision to Abandon Reparations

On September 25, 1972, Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei visited China. After arduous negotiations, on September 29, the two countries issued the Joint Communiqué of the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Government of Japan.

A rarely mentioned but crucial article in this communiqué states:

“The Government of the People's Republic of China declares: In the interest of the friendship between the peoples of China and Japan, it renounces its demand for war reparations from Japan.”

This decision was the result of deep consideration by Chinese leaders:

• Political considerations: To quickly normalize diplomatic relations and turn Japan from a U.S. vassal into a friend of China.
• Strategic considerations: Breaking diplomatic isolation was urgent amidst the Cold War context.
• Moral considerations: Not wanting war reparations to ultimately fall on the shoulders of ordinary Japanese citizens.

But this decision sparked controversy at the time: Why give up reparations? Has Japan’s debt to us just been written off?

II. Japan’s ODA to China: Another Form of “Compensation”?

After renouncing war reparations, Japan provided economic compensation to China through another route — Official Development Assistance (ODA).

From 1979 to 2018, Japan’s ODA to China totaled over 3.6 trillion yen (approximately more than 200 billion yuan), mainly including:

• Low-interest loans: For infrastructure constructions, such as Beijing Subway, Shanghai Baosteel, Qingdao Port, etc.
• Grants: For healthcare, education, environmental protection projects.
• Technical cooperation: Dispatching experts, training personnel.

These aids indeed assisted China’s development, especially at the beginning of the reform and opening-up when China was in dire need of funds and technologies, Japan’s ODA played an important role.

III. Controversies and Conditions Attached to ODA

However, Japan’s aid wasn’t purely an altruistic act; it held obvious political and economic calculations:

1. “Tied-loans”Japanese loans were often “tied,” requiring China to purchase Japanese products with these loans, effectively opening the Chinese market for Japanese companies.2. Diplomatic leverage toolJapan has threatened China several times with ODA as leverage, demanding concessions on historical issues and territorial disputes. For instance, Japan once froze loans to China in 1995 due to China’s nuclear tests.3. Economic infiltrationThrough aid projects, Japanese enterprises and technical personnel entered China in large numbers, establishing long-term economic ties.4. Moral “debt”Some Chinese people had mixed feelings about this:Japan seemed to “cleanse” its war responsibility through aid. Just because they spent money, does that mean they don’t have to apologize?

IV. How to Assess This History?

This is a complex issue that cannot easily be rated as “good” or “bad.”

From a pragmatic standpoint, Japan’s ODA indeed helped China develop. China acquired funds, technologies, and management experience, accelerating modernization.

From an emotional standpoint, many Chinese felt uneasy: We gave up war reparations but what we got was conditional aid, and instead of gratitude, Japanese often used aid to “make demands.”

From a strategic standpoint, it was the result of international political maneuvers during that era. Under the Cold War structure, China had no choice but to make the best decision from limited options.

Every step in Sino-Japanese relations has been a complex game of interests and emotions, reality and history. There are no simple rights or wrongs, only trade-offs and choices.

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Chapter Four: Why Did “Anti-Japanese Demonstrations” Disappear?

When the Diaoyu Islands dispute escalated in 2012, large-scale anti-Japanese demonstrations erupted across China. After that, similar large-scale street protests indeed decreased. What this reflects is not the disappearance of emotions, but rather the structural transformation of national power and public mindset.

I. The “Psychological Composure” Brought by Strength

When a country becomes strong enough, it no longer needs to vent its anger by destroying its property (such as Japanese cars). The growth of national power provides a solid foundation.

• From protest to patrol: Previously, we mainly relied on verbal protests and diplomatic negotiations. Now, Chinese Coast Guard vessels regularly patrol the Diaoyu Islands waters, asserting rights through actual presence.
• Hard power support: Aircraft carriers, new destroyers, and stealth fighters gave the public confidence — The righteousness of a claim lies not just in words, but in the ability to defend it.

II. The “Professional” and “Rational” Ways of Expression

As the younger generation becomes the dominant social group, the expression of patriotic sentiments has undergone profound changes.

• From streets to the internet: Social media became the primary arena for public opinion. People prefer to refute erroneous statements on international platforms through historical evidence and logical debate rather than simple physical conflicts.
• From boycott to surpass: A more mainstream viewpoint is that comprehensively surpassing opponents in industry and technology is a more lasting and effective “strike.”
• Institutionalization of national ceremonies: National Memorial Day and other commemorative activities, established as solemn and serious national ceremonies, elevate the succession of national memory from grassroots spontaneity to the manifestation of national will.

III. Lack of Demonstrations Doesn’t Mean a Softer Stance

The reduction of large-scale street protests doesn't imply a softening or forgetting of Chinese people’s stance on historical issues.-The official stance has always been firm: The Chinese government’s statements on historical issues and territorial sovereignty in diplomatic settings remain clear and explicit.

• Clear red lines in civil society: Whenever Japanese politicians visit the Yasukuni Shrine or revise history textbooks, significant criticism surges on Chinese social media, maintaining historical memory as an untouchable red line.

In essence, this shift is a transformation from the “emotional outburst of the weaker” to the “rational game of the stronger.” We now possess more diverse, effective tools to defend our position and memory.

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Chapter Five: Facing the Future - The Possibility and Impossibility of Reconciliation

I. Why “Complete Reconciliation” Might Be a Pseudo Topic

We must clearly acknowledge that as long as certain fundamental obstacles remain unresolved, emotional “complete reconciliation” is almost impossible.

• Irreversible memory: The lives of 18 million victims cannot be revived; this trauma has blended into the genetic memory of the nation.
• Structural political obstacles: As described in the first part, Japan's post-war political ecology (such as war criminal descendants in power), and U.S. geopolitical control make it difficult for Japan to make an independent, thorough reflection on historical issues.
• Strategic geopolitical contradictions: Japan, as a key U.S. ally in the Asia-Pacific, has strategic positioning naturally in tension with China's rise, often intertwining historical issues with current disputes, making solutions complex and difficult.

II. Realism “Cold Peace”: Coexistence Rather Than Embrace

Despite the wide emotional gap, in reality, China and Japan must learn to “coexist.”

• The ballast of economy: The industrial chains of both countries are deeply intertwined, with high economic interdependence. Cold politics and hot economics remain the norm, and the enormous common interests serve as a buffer against complete breakdown of relations.
• The thread of grassroots connections: Anime, tourism, academic exchanges, sister city relations, and other grassroots exchanges constitute the most resilient part of the bilateral relationship, preserving subtle channels for understanding and peace.

III. The Only True Premise of Reconciliation

The heart of the problem hasn’t changed. The demands of the Chinese people are not about dwelling on the past, but pointing towards the future.

If Japan were to be like Germany:

• Officially acknowledge the history of invasion.
• Teach the true historical facts in the education system.
• Political leaders stop visiting Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals are venerated.
• Establish laws and systems to prevent the revival of militaristic ideologies.

Then, the atmosphere in Sino-Japanese relations would undergo a fundamental change. True reconciliation does not lie in the generosity of the victim, but in the sincerity and actions of the perpetrator.

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Conclusion: Viewing History and Moving Towards the Future

“Why do Chinese people always hold a grudge against Japan’s invasion?”

Throughout this text, the answer is clear: We remember because justice has not been fully realized, because the sacrifice of 35 million compatriots requires a solemn account, because the truth of history cannot be blurred by geopolitical transactions.

However, today’s China is no longer the weak nation struggling in anger.

• We remember history not to indulge in hatred, but to remain sober, ensuring such tragedies never repeat.
• We develop national power not to tread the path of aggression, but to safeguard peace, allowing our descendants to live in dignity and security.

Forgetting history means betrayal; strengthening oneself, and maintaining reverence for history is the best consolation for the past and the most responsible attitude towards the future.